Half the year is booked. Will we hit the number?
Golden forecasts the rest of the year line by line, peak season included, and tells you the honest probability that each line hits its target.
Pacing charts lie in July
Elena plans demand for a consumer goods brand with three product lines. It's early July, half the year is booked, and finance wants to know which lines will land their annual target.
A straight-line pacing chart can't answer that, because most of the year's revenue sits in the Q4 peak. Anything clearly short needs a flag now, while there's still time to act.
A real forecast, with odds
Golden fits a seasonal forecast to each line's weekly history, checks it against the past, and projects the full-year total: actuals to date plus the forecast for every remaining week.
Add the target and Golden reports the gap and P(hit), the probability that the year's total meets it. Elena gets one number per line she can take to finance.
How Golden answers it
Turn on the forecast
Chart weekly revenue by product line and click Forecast. Set the horizon to 26 weeks and the band to 95%. Each line extends past today with a shaded range.
Check the fit
Hover a forecast point to see the method and the backtest. Golden refits on three past windows and reports error (MAPE) and how often the band actually held.
Pace each line to target
Turn on target pacing, add the line's annual target, and Golden shows the projected full year, the gap, and P(hit).
See the season
A heatmap of units by week and year lights up the Q4 band every single year. That's the pattern the forecast is fitting.
Look back at plan
Bars of actual versus target for prior years show how close past targets landed, so this year's miss stands out.
Three lines, three verdicts
- 01Home Fitness is on track: projected $7.04M against a $7.01M target, P(hit) 58%
- 02Outdoor Gear is short: projected $7.10M against $8.51M, a 16.6% gap, P(hit) effectively 0%
- 03Kitchen Essentials is ahead: projected $5.44M against $5.34M, P(hit) 92%
- 04Every fit backtests at 4.5% to 5.6% error, with its 95% band holding 94% to 97% of the time
Is it demand or the target?
Run Explain Change on Outdoor Gear, comparing Q2 this year with Q2 last year. It's growing right at trend, so the shortfall is in the target. That's a very different conversation with finance than "sales are slipping."
Export the forecast to Google Sheets so finance can drop the projected totals into the operating plan, or generate a data story where each line's pace gets its own slide.
Know in July, while you can still act
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